Is "Frankenstein" Netflix's Best Chance For A Best Picture Nomination?

Before the Venice Film Festival opened back in August, Netflix looked to have one of the strongest slates this awards season, boasting unseen films by Oscar favorites Kathryn Bigelow, Guillermo del Toro, Edward Berger, and Noah Baumbach. Baumbach’s Jay Kelly was considered a top five contender for Best Picture, with 82% of Awards Expert users predicting it for a nomination. All of their films have premiered since then, and we’re still left guessing which film Netflix, who’ve managed to get a film in Best Picture every year since 2018’s Roma, will prioritize this season.

"Frankenstein" Surges Into Best Picture Ten

The current best bet, according to our users, is Frankenstein, which is ranked at #8 in our community predictions for Best Picture. And one can see why, given it’s easily Netflix’s strongest contender for the tech categories. 98% of our users have it winning Makeup and Hairstyling, while 72% have it winning Production Design. Costume Design looks like a lock (and is ranked at #2 according to our users), while it places in our top five for Cinematography and Score. Visual Effects, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor for Jacob Elordi are also in play, landing just outside the top five in each. Though the reviews don’t suggest it’s an all-timer, its 3.7 Letterboxd score is currently equal to Best Picture-winning Shape of Water, and significantly better than Nightmare Alley's, which got its surprise nomination in 2022. Del Toro is on an Oscar streak, so it’s hard to bet against Frankenstein receiving Academy support.

"Jay Kelly" Loses Ground After Venice Premiere

Since its premiere in Venice, Jay Kelly has fallen from #5 to #12 in our community’s Best Picture leaderboard. Currently with a Metacritic score of just 62, it’s a far cry from Baumbach’s last Oscar contender Marriage Story, which holds a 94. Despite the poor reception, Netflix putting their chips in its basket might still pay off. It’s a film about Hollywood, which is always an attractive proposition to voters. Plus, it has a solid nominations package, with Supporting Actor (Adam Sandler) and Original Screenplay nominations still predicted by our users, with Score, Lead Actor (George Clooney), and Casting all looking like possibilities. On its best day, Jay Kelly could nab three above-the-line categories, which would be more than enough to justify a Picture nomination.

"A House of Dynamite" Takes a Dip After Release

Sitting just behind Jay Kelly in our community predictions is Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite, currently ranked at #16 . Early reviews out of Venice were stellar, with the film originally hitting the high 80s on Metacritic. Since then, though, it has come out in a few territories, playing the New York Film Festival as well, and opinions have softened. It landed a disappointing 3.4 on Letterboxd (the lowest for any of her films since 2002), and its Metacritic score fell to a 77, just below Frankenstein’s 78. Our community currently doesn’t have it predicted for any category, but it is sitting just outside Original Screenplay and Editing. The nominations package is currently thinner than Frankenstein and Jay Kelly, but given Bigelow’s success with The Hurt Locker fifteen years ago, you can’t count her out with the Academy.

"Train Dreams": Netflix's Dark Horse?

If none of the above seem particularly convincing, Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams is the underdog story to watch out for. Coming out of Sundance with rave reviews, the muted reception for Netflix’s heavier hitters may pave a path for this indie drama. Its Letterboxd and Metacritic scores (3.8 and 85, respectively) are stronger than the aforementioned contenders’, which could entice the streaming giant. Though Bentley is far from a known quantity in the Oscars conversation, he is a previous nominee for co-writing Sing Sing last year. Train Dreams sits outside the top five for Cinematography ( #7 ) and Adapted Screenplay ( #8 ), and is a dark horse for Picture ( #17 ). But if Netflix can pull it off, Best Actor (Joel Edgerton) and Score could certainly come into play as well.

Other Contenders

After its poor reception, Edward Berger’s Ballad of a Small Player, which was in 18th for Best Picture back in August, has fallen all the way down to #32 , looking to end the director’s hot streak in the category. Wake Up Dead Man, the third film in the Knives Out trilogy, has yet to be taken seriously for Picture, but it does make our users’ top 5 for Adapted Screenplay, and sits at #4 for the inaugural Casting category.

Netflix may just have to wait until all films are released on the platform and utilize their internal data to figure out which one sticks best with audiences. After all, it wasn’t until December that 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front emerged as a contender. What Netflix do not have is the runaway lock they did last season in Emilia Pérez, but after an eight-year long streak in the category, it’s hard to bet against them.