Award Expert Logo

2026 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Aggregated predictions from 3,935 users

Updated: Oct 15, 10:29 PM

Predicted nominees

1

Sinners

Sinners

Ryan Coogler

WIN:48%
12%
change over 30 days
NOM:98%
1%
change over 30 days

2

Sentimental Value

Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt

WIN:43%
14%
change over 30 days
NOM:97%
1%
change over 30 days

3

Marty Supreme

Marty Supreme

Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie

WIN:5%
2%
change over 30 days
NOM:92%
6%
change over 30 days

4

It Was Just an Accident

It Was Just an Accident

Jafar Panahi

WIN:1%
NOM:82%
19%
change over 30 days

5

Jay Kelly

Jay Kelly

Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach

WIN:0%
NOM:43%
2%
change over 30 days

Rankings over time

Sinners
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Rank
123456Sep 16Sep 19Sep 22Sep 25Sep 28Oct 2Oct 5Oct 8Oct 11Oct 15
Sinners
Rank #1 on Oct 15
Sinners
Rank #1 on Oct 14
Sinners
Rank #1 on Oct 13
Sinners
Rank #1 on Oct 12
Sinners
Rank #1 on Oct 11
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 10
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 9
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 8
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 7
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 6
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 5
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 4
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 3
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 2
Sinners
Rank #2 on Oct 1
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 30
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 29
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 28
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 27
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 26
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 25
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 24
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 23
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 22
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 21
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 20
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 19
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 18
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 17
Sinners
Rank #2 on Sep 16
Sentimental Value
Rank #2 on Oct 15
Sentimental Value
Rank #2 on Oct 14
Sentimental Value
Rank #2 on Oct 13
Sentimental Value
Rank #2 on Oct 12
Sentimental Value
Rank #2 on Oct 11
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 10
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 9
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 8
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 7
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 6
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 5
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 4
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 3
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 2
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Oct 1
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 30
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 29
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 28
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 27
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 26
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 25
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 24
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 23
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 22
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 21
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 20
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 19
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 18
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 17
Sentimental Value
Rank #1 on Sep 16
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 15
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 14
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 13
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 12
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 11
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 10
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 9
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 8
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 7
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 6
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 5
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 4
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 3
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 2
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Oct 1
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 30
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 29
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 28
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 27
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 26
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 25
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 24
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 23
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 22
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 21
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 20
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 19
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 18
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 17
Marty Supreme
Rank #3 on Sep 16
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 15
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 14
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 13
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 12
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 11
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 10
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 9
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 8
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 7
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 6
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 5
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 4
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 3
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 2
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Oct 1
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 30
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 29
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 28
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 27
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 26
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 25
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 24
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 23
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 22
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 21
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 20
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 19
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 18
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 17
It Was Just an Accident
Rank #4 on Sep 16
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 15
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 14
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 13
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 12
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 11
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 10
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 9
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 8
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 7
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 6
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 5
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 4
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 3
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 2
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Oct 1
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 30
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 29
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 28
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 27
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 26
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 25
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 24
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 23
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 22
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 21
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 20
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 19
Jay Kelly
Rank #5 on Sep 18
Jay Kelly
Rank #6 on Sep 17
Jay Kelly
Rank #6 on Sep 16
12345

Next in line

6

A House of Dynamite

A House of Dynamite

Noah Oppenheim

WIN:0%
NOM:31%
7%
change over 30 days

7

Weapons

Weapons

Zach Cregger

WIN:0%
NOM:10%
5%
change over 30 days

8

Sorry, Baby

Sorry, Baby

Eva Victor

WIN:0%
NOM:8%
2%
change over 30 days

9

Rental Family

Rental Family

HIKARI, Stephen Blahut

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
40%
change over 30 days

10

The Testament of Ann Lee

The Testament of Ann Lee

Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet

WIN:0%
NOM:6%

Rankings over time

A House of Dynamite
Weapons
Sorry, Baby
Rental Family
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank
567891011Sep 16Sep 19Sep 22Sep 25Sep 28Oct 2Oct 5Oct 8Oct 11Oct 15
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 15
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 14
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 13
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 12
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 11
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 10
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 9
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 8
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 7
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 6
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 5
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 4
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 3
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 2
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Oct 1
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 30
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 29
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 28
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 27
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 26
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 25
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 24
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 23
A House of Dynamite
Rank #6 on Sep 22
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 21
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 20
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 19
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 18
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 17
A House of Dynamite
Rank #7 on Sep 16
Weapons
Rank #7 on Oct 15
Weapons
Rank #7 on Oct 14
Weapons
Rank #8 on Oct 13
Weapons
Rank #8 on Oct 12
Weapons
Rank #8 on Oct 11
Weapons
Rank #8 on Oct 10
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 9
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 8
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 7
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 6
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 5
Weapons
Rank #10 on Oct 4
Weapons
Rank #10 on Oct 3
Weapons
Rank #10 on Oct 2
Weapons
Rank #9 on Oct 1
Weapons
Rank #9 on Sep 30
Weapons
Rank #9 on Sep 29
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 28
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 27
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 26
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 25
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 24
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 23
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 22
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 21
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 20
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 19
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 18
Weapons
Rank #10 on Sep 17
Weapons
Rank #11 on Sep 16
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 15
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 14
Sorry, Baby
Rank #7 on Oct 13
Sorry, Baby
Rank #7 on Oct 12
Sorry, Baby
Rank #7 on Oct 11
Sorry, Baby
Rank #9 on Oct 10
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 9
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 8
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 7
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 6
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 5
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 4
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 3
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 2
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Oct 1
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 30
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 29
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 28
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 27
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 26
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 25
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 24
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 23
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 22
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 21
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 20
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 19
Sorry, Baby
Rank #8 on Sep 18
Sorry, Baby
Rank #9 on Sep 17
Sorry, Baby
Rank #9 on Sep 16
Rental Family
Rank #9 on Oct 15
Rental Family
Rank #9 on Oct 14
Rental Family
Rank #9 on Oct 13
Rental Family
Rank #9 on Oct 12
Rental Family
Rank #9 on Oct 11
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 10
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 9
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 8
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 7
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 6
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 5
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 4
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 3
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 2
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Oct 1
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 30
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 29
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 28
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 27
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 26
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 25
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 24
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 23
Rental Family
Rank #7 on Sep 22
Rental Family
Rank #6 on Sep 21
Rental Family
Rank #6 on Sep 20
Rental Family
Rank #6 on Sep 19
Rental Family
Rank #6 on Sep 18
Rental Family
Rank #5 on Sep 17
Rental Family
Rank #5 on Sep 16
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 15
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 14
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 13
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 12
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 11
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 10
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 9
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 8
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 7
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 6
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Oct 5
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Oct 4
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Oct 3
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Oct 2
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #11 on Oct 1
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #11 on Sep 30
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #10 on Sep 29
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 28
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 27
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 26
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 25
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 24
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 23
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 22
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 21
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 20
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 19
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #9 on Sep 18
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #8 on Sep 17
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rank #8 on Sep 16
678910

Dark horses

11

Is This Thing On?

Is This Thing On?

Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper

WIN:0%
NOM:5%

12

The Secret Agent

The Secret Agent

Kleber Mendonça Filho

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
2%
change over 30 days

13

After the Hunt

After the Hunt

Nora Garrett

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
3%
change over 30 days

14

One Battle After Another

One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson

WIN:0%
NOM:2%

15

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Mary Bronstein

WIN:0%
NOM:1%

16

Blue Moon

Blue Moon

Robert Kaplow

WIN:0%
NOM:1%

17

Materialists

Materialists

Celine Song

WIN:0%
NOM:1%

18

Anemone

Anemone

Daniel Day-Lewis, Ronan Day-Lewis

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

19

Eddington

Eddington

Ari Aster

WIN:0%
NOM:1%

20

The Smashing Machine

The Smashing Machine

Benny Safdie

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

21

Father Mother Sister Brother

Father Mother Sister Brother

Jim Jarmusch

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

22

The Rivals of Amziah King

The Rivals of Amziah King

Andrew Patterson

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

23

Splitsville

Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino, Kyle Marvin

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

24

Ella McCay

Ella McCay

James L. Brooks

WIN:0%
NOM:0%

25

Twinless

Twinless

James Sweeney

WIN:0%
NOM:0%