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Just one week into its theatrical release, 'One Battle After Another' has dramatically reshaped the awards landscape. Some are even declaring that the race is over, and for good reason.
This will likely be the single best reviewed film of 2025, boasting exceptional Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores. But the press aren't the only ones catching a fever. Paul Thomas Anderson's modern American epic is thrilling, funny, action-packed, and made with the multiplex audience in mind. The pacing is breathless and never lets up throughout the 2hr 45min runtime.
"It's time to Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar" chatter is already deafening. Celebrating an auteur director has helped Best Picture winners like Anora and Oppenheimer in recent years.
Set against the backdrop of a revolutionary group battling their government as immigrant populations face mass detention, 'One Battle After Another' arrives at a politically charged moment. This gives voters a broader reason to award the film as ICE raids sweep cities like Los Angeles.
Many users have shifted their number-one prediction from 'Sinners' to 'One Battle After Another'. But confidence in Ryan Coogler's genre-defying vampire film remains remarkably high for a nomination. This highly original, genre-bending, musical period drama took both audiences and the box office by storm when it premiered in April. Passion from critics and moviegoers hungry for thought-provoking, original cinema gives it staying power.
Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' emerged as the biggest success from the fall festival circuit, winning the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festial, indicating strong support from audiences. The film explores the love and loss that inspired Shakespeare's 'Hamlet'. Holding a stellar 90 on Metacritic, 'Hamnet' proves it's not just an audience hit, but loved across the board for its portrait of grief and healing. Bring the tissues.
'Sentimental Value' continues to hold strong as it completes its festival run. Predicted to be an awards darling since its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, this is the most likely international film to land a nomination next year. Excitement for writer/director Joachim Trier's filmmaking and support for the outstanding ensemble cast make this one hard to bet against.
Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme', starring Timothée Chalamet, is holding impressively strong at 89% prediction despite no one having seen it yet. As A24's flagship awards contender this season, the trailer promises a highly entertaining, funny, sports-centered thrill ride that could appeal to both audiences and critics. The studio's track record and Chalamet's star power keep expectations elevated.
'Wicked: For Good' remains a safe bet following the stellar ten nominations its predecessor received during last year's awards season. Since both films were shot simultaneously, prognosticators see little reason to expect dramatically different results. The built-in fanbase and director Jon M. Chu's steady hand make it a reliable prediction for nomination consideration.
Following its Palme d'Or victory, 'It Was Just An Accident' has only gained momentum. Some prognosticators expressed skepticism that this simmering Iranian drama could be an awards play. But Neon is determined to make the world know director Jafar Panahi's name, a filmmaker who has made over a dozen films and been imprisoned for his craft by the Iranian government. The film's presence at TIFF and Telluride has increased confidence among users.
Just when it appeared Neon had its hands full with 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just An Accident', 'No Other Choice' has lept into the race with an excellent reception at Venice and TIFF, where it won the International People's Choice Award. Park Chan-Wook is yet another filmmaker overdue for international recognition, and it might arrive with his latest dark comedy which examines the brutality of the job market in our capitalist landscape.
It might seem too good to be true that Neon could land three international films in Best Picture, and it would be astounding if they pulled it off. Let's have our fingers crossed.
'Bugonia' and 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere', both widely considered solid contenders before the fall festivals, have seen user confidence waver. 'Hamnet' effectively took the spot as Focus Features' main awards horse as 'Bugonia' received mostly positive but somewhat mixed reactions.
'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' premiered to good-not-great reactions from press. Though confidence remains strong in the film's highly anticipated performances from Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen and Jeremy Strong as his manager. The acting potential may be enough to keep the film in consideration.
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The third 'Avatar' film has consistently hovered around the 10-12 slot in users' predictions throughout the year. While the previous two 'Avatar' films both received Best Picture nominations, the sequel only totaled four nominations. The question remains whether these films will continue to be a staple of the category or if voters may experience franchise fatigue. But it's typically wise to not doubt James Cameron.
Netflix has been a staple of the Best Picture category every year since 'Roma'. But this year the streaming giant faces a unique challenge with three major contenders from big-name directors, none of which seem like slam dunks.
Guillermo Del Toro's 'Frankenstein' landed second place for the TIFF People's Choice Award, indicating strong passion and support from the world's largest public film festival. It received similarly positive but lukewarm reviews to Guillermo del Toro's 'Nightmare Alley', which managed to squeeze into Best Picture in what many considered a surprise. With strong competitiveness in craft categories, branch support could provide a path to nomination.
Kathryn Bigelow's 'A House of Dynamite', a political thriller about the White House's response to an incoming nuclear missile, currently boasts excellent critical reviews with an 86 on Metacritic. However, Letterboxd reactions tell a different story, with the film sitting at a middling 3.4 rating. Mixed reactions from NYFF suggest the film may struggle to build the momentum needed for a nomination. Though its subject matter carries weight and importance.
Noah Baumbach's 'Jay Kelly' features an impressive cast led by George Clooney and Adam Sandler. With its Hollywood-set tale of an A-list movie star's soul-searching, the film is tailor-made for Academy tastes. But reception has been divisive, with mixed reviews from press. Supporters argue the film can supplement critical support with industry backing. The meta-Hollywood angle could resonate with voters, and the film boasts standout performances from its ensemble cast. It can compete in acting categories where Netflix's other films may struggle.
After Searchlight's 'Rental Family' failed to break out at the Toronto International Film Festival, Searchlight acquired 'The Testament of Ann Lee' in what many view as a calculated gamble. Amanda Seyfried's performance and the film's immaculate crafts could secure nominations, potentially paving a path toward Best Picture consideration.
Searchlight also has Bradley Cooper's 'Is This Thing On', premiering October 10th at the New York Film Festival. While it appears less ambitious than Cooper's last two efforts, both of which received many accolades, it remains a contender worth watching out for.
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Warner Bros. already has strong hands with 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners', but both 'Weapons' and 'F1' have decent chances at scoring nominations in other categories. 'Weapons' is gaining traction in Best Supporting Actress, while 'F1' looks competitive in Sound and VFX. Weapons has the edge with strong critical acclaim. Take note if it can garner support from precursors in Original Screenplay.
Following last year's success with 'The Substance', Mubi's Oscar hopeful this year is 'Die My Love'. After premiering to strong critic reviews at Cannes, it oddly skipped the fall festival circuit, muting the buzz. While perhaps too abrasive for traditional Academy tastes, as any Lynne Ramsay film might indicate, Jennifer Lawrence could still secure a Best Actress nomination in an open field.
Keep an eye on 'Train Dreams' if Netflix fails to gain traction with its higher-profile contenders. As a Sundance indie, it may lack the weight of Netflix's offerings from established directors. On the other hand, it has a strong cast led by Joel Edgerton, and director Clint Bentley is Oscar-nominated (for Sing Sing's screenplay). His latest meditative period drama features sweeping scale as a western-set period drama with breathtaking cinematography. It's a critic darling.