Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best First Screenplay

Aggregated predictions from 429 users

Updated: Nov 8, 2:30 AM
Sorry, Baby
1

Sorry, Baby

Eva Victor

WIN:84%
NOM:91%
Blue Moon
2

Blue Moon

Robert Kaplow

WIN:4%
NOM:87%
Pillion
3

Pillion

Harry Lighton

WIN:0%
NOM:77%
The Plague
4

The Plague

Charlie Polinger

WIN:8%
NOM:67%
Urchin
5

Urchin

Harris Dickinson

WIN:1%
NOM:70%
My Father's Shadow
6

My Father's Shadow

Wale Davies, Akinola Davies Jr.

WIN:0%
NOM:21%
Eleanor the Great
7

Eleanor the Great

Tory Kamen

WIN:1%
NOM:14%
Friendship
8

Friendship

Andrew DeYoung

WIN:0%
NOM:14%
The History of Sound
9

The History of Sound

Ben Shattuck

WIN:0%
NOM:6%
Plainclothes
10

Plainclothes

Carmen Emmi

WIN:0%
NOM:5%
Anemone
11

Anemone

Daniel Day-Lewis, Ronan Day-Lewis

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
Omaha
12

Omaha

Robert Machoian

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
The President's Cake
13

The President's Cake

Hasan Hadi

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Blue Heron
14

Blue Heron

Sophy Romvari

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Eternity
15

Eternity

David Freyne, Pat Cunnane

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Preparation for the Next Life
16

Preparation for the Next Life

Martyna Majok

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Bob Trevino Likes It
17

Bob Trevino Likes It

Tracie Laymon

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Mad Bills to Pay (or Destiny, dile que no soy malo)
18

Mad Bills to Pay (or Destiny, dile que no soy malo)

Joel Alfonso Vargas

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
East of Wall
19

East of Wall

Kate Beecroft

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Lockjaw
20

Lockjaw

Sabrina Greco

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Eephus
21

Eephus

Michael Basta, Carson Lund, Nate Fisher

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Familiar Touch
22

Familiar Touch

Sarah Friedland

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Blue Sun Palace
23

Blue Sun Palace

Constance Tsang

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Legend of Ochi
24

The Legend of Ochi

Isaiah Saxon

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Straight Circle
25

Straight Circle

Oscar Hudson

WIN:0%
NOM:0%