Award Expert

2026 Independent Spirit Awards Predictions: Best Screenplay

Aggregated predictions from 452 users

Updated: Nov 8, 2:30 AM
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
1

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Mary Bronstein

WIN:57%
NOM:92%
Sorry, Baby
2

Sorry, Baby

Eva Victor

WIN:17%
NOM:79%
Sentimental Value
3

Sentimental Value

Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

WIN:8%
NOM:73%
Splitsville
4

Splitsville

Michael Angelo Covino, Kyle Marvin

WIN:9%
NOM:61%
Twinless
5

Twinless

James Sweeney

WIN:2%
NOM:58%
Train Dreams
6

Train Dreams

Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley

WIN:2%
NOM:38%
It Was Just an Accident
7

It Was Just an Accident

Jafar Panahi

WIN:1%
NOM:17%
The Life of Chuck
8

The Life of Chuck

Mike Flanagan

WIN:1%
NOM:13%
Blue Moon
9

Blue Moon

Robert Kaplow

WIN:0%
NOM:11%
Hamnet
10

Hamnet

Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell

WIN:2%
NOM:7%
Die My Love
11

Die My Love

Enda Walsh, Lynne Ramsay, Alice Birch

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
No Other Choice
12

No Other Choice

Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye, Don McKellar

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
The Mastermind
13

The Mastermind

Kelly Reichardt

WIN:0%
NOM:4%
The Testament of Ann Lee
14

The Testament of Ann Lee

Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Materialists
15

Materialists

Celine Song

WIN:0%
NOM:3%
The Secret Agent
16

The Secret Agent

Kleber Mendonça Filho

WIN:1%
NOM:2%
Roofman
17

Roofman

Derek Cianfrance, Kirt Gunn

WIN:0%
NOM:2%
Father Mother Sister Brother
18

Father Mother Sister Brother

Jim Jarmusch

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
The Wedding Banquet
19

The Wedding Banquet

James Schamus, Andrew Ahn

WIN:0%
NOM:1%
Omaha
20

Omaha

Robert Machoian

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
The Plague
21

The Plague

Charlie Polinger

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Bugonia
22

Bugonia

Will Tracy

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Rebuilding
23

Rebuilding

Max Walker-Silverman

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Christy
24

Christy

Mirrah Foulkes, David Michôd

WIN:0%
NOM:0%
Is This Thing On?
25

Is This Thing On?

Mark Chappell, Will Arnett, Bradley Cooper

WIN:0%
NOM:0%